Interpretting NCEP/TDL Experimental Ensemble MRF MOS output


Interpretting display: Model Comparison Color Matrix

This type of display is the most complicated and can take some time to get used to.

Fundamentally, however, it conveys the same amount of information as the previous type of display. This type of display can often illuminate the model trends more easily due to the more active use of color.

This figure can more quickly show you the model trends in changing forecast high temperatures.

The bottom figure is the same structure as the top, but displays the variability in the ensemble forecast high. This figure represents a measure of the uncertainty in the model output. The variability (1 standard deviation value) is displayed in grayscale only to distinguish it from the colored plot above. The brighter the box is, the less variability exists. The darker the box is, the more variability exists.

Similar color matrix plots are available for low temperature and 12-hr preciptation as well, but are not shown here for this example.

If you have questions or comments concerning the display of this experimental output, email them to Bob Hart (hart@ems.psu.edu).

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